Bird Flu: A Threat We Can't Ignore

A little over 5 years ago, the world was thrown into chaos after the outbreak of COVID-19. We all remember how difficult it was to adjust to life in lockdown, unsure how long it was going to be until we could see our friends and family. How long it was going to be until we could actually live our lives again? The good news is that we all made it through, but the bad news is that we might have to go through it again. No, I am not talking about another COVID outbreak, but rather a much worse virus called the bird flu. The bird flu, also called the Avian influenza or H5N1, is a subtype of the influenza virus that primarily affects birds. However, it can be transmitted from birds to other mammals- and yes, that includes humans. The first reported case of bird flu in humans was in 1997, but there have not been many cases since then. This is because bird flu cannot reliably be transmitted from human to human, which is why this has not turned into a global pandemic, even though it has been around for a long time. The case fatality rate is around 50%, however, it is important to keep in mind that human cases have been pretty rare. If an outbreak were to occur, the actual fatality rate may be lower. The reason the bird flu is so bad is because it triggers an extreme immune response which can cause significant damage to a person. On top of this, it has the potential to cause pneumonia and multi-organ failure.

The Issue and Current Impact

Now, you may ask yourself, “Why is this an issue if it cannot transmit from human to human? I don’t even interact with birds.” That is a good point, however, scientists and medical experts have stated that the bird flu could one day gain the ability to reliably transmit from human to human. This would most likely happen through genetic mutation, isn’t biology fascinating? Because of this, the bird flu has a lot of potential to be bad for us, but at this moment, the bird flu does not pose a significant threat in the context of a global pandemic. But the bird flu does not have to cause a global pandemic in order to be a threat in the short term. I am sure everyone is aware of the high prices of eggs. This is due in large part to recent outbreaks of the bird flu among various chicken farms across the U.S. This has forced farmers to cull a lot of their chickens as it is the fastest and easiest way to prevent the sickness from spreading further. This has led to shortages of poultry and eggs throughout the country. On top of this, cows are also being heavily impacted by the bird flu. While most infected cows usually survive, studies have shown that it hampers their dairy production. So if you love eggs and dairy, well, maybe it’s time to look at other options because prices most likely will not go down any time soon. 

The bird flu is not just having an effect on the supply of eggs and dairy products, but it also has been impacting many mammalian populations. As a matter of fact, it is reported that around 48 mammalian species have been affected by the bird flu. This might not seem like a lot considering there are thousands of mammalian species, but the fact that it is adapting to more mammalian species means that it could one day adapt to humans. Furthermore, the effects that this could have on animal populations around the world could be devastating. It has already resulted in the death of tens of thousands of wild animals which could have lasting negative effects on biodiversity if the bird flu continues to adapt to new mammalian hosts.

Future Worries

Given that the bird flu is able to adapt to new mammalian species, this has scientists worried that it is only a matter of time before it adapts to humans. Take cows for example. The first confirmed case of the bird flu in a farm cow was back in March of 2024. Since then, there have been an estimated 985 dairy herds infected with the bird flu. On top of this, the spread of bird flu among cow herds does indicate that the bird flu has mutated enough to sustain cow to cow spreading.  Perhaps the most compelling reason to believe that a mutation could occur with this strand of influenza is that it has already happened with other strands before. A mutation in the H1N1 strain of influenza is what caused the 2009 swine flu pandemic that took the lives of nearly 300,000 people. Now before I move on, I just want to preface by saying that I am not trying to scare anyone. I really just want to inform people about this because I think it is important for people to know about it. Got that? Now strap in, because things are not going to get better from here.

So what would an outbreak look like if the bird flu successfully mutates to reliably transmit between humans? First and foremost, we could probably expect another lockdown, economic downturn, and endless lines to buy toilet paper. But how deadly could an outbreak be? Firstly, let's look at some statistics about the COVID-19 pandemic. Out of around 700 million people infected worldwide, there were about 7 million casualties. This gives COVID-19 a fatality rate of around 1%. At the beginning of this blog, I mentioned that the fatality rate of the bird flu was 50%. Now that might seem like a big scary number, but that will probably go down if an outbreak were to occur. So let’s assume a fatality rate of around 5-10% and that the same number of people got infected. This would mean the number of casualties could range from 35-70 million people worldwide, almost matching or even exceeding the death toll of the 1918 influenza pandemic, which remains the deadliest outbreak in modern history. This is obviously making a few assumptions, and the actual number of casualties could be way more or less depending on our response and how infectious a mutated version of the bird flu ends up being. However, it is not unreasonable to assume that a mutated version would spread fairly quickly given that we have no natural immunity to it.

Is There Anything Being Done Now?

Yes there is! Vaccines for the bird flu do exist already and are currently being stockpiled by governments and health agencies. On top of this, there is ongoing research to develop better vaccines for the bird flu. However, the efficacy of these vaccines is going to be highly dependent on how the bird flu mutates. So a mutated strain could give the virus months or even a year to cause significant damage before a vaccine rolls out to the general public. On top of this, everyone would have to play their part in stopping the spread of the virus by quarantining and getting the vaccine when it does roll out. Given how much push back there was to both of these things during COVID-19, the virus could still cause damage even after vaccines roll out.

Wrapping it up

So that all seems bad, that means it’s time to start panicking right??? Well, no. Right now, it cannot reliably transmit from person to person. So unless you are working closely with cows or chickens, the chances of you getting it are low. And hey, if an outbreak does occur, you know what to do. Wash your hands, stay indoors as much as possible, be prepared to mask up 😷, and ride out the storm. At this stage, it is very difficult to predict how this will exactly unfold, so I think the best thing we can do now is stay informed. And if you suspect you have bird flu, please go to the doctor immediately.